Rising Temperatures and Vulnerable Groups
(Published in the newspaper Amigoe on the 11th of March 2026)
This new series is about the need to plant more shade trees in the neighborhoods, in the city center and at the schools. A shade tree is a species of tree that, due to its crown shape, leaf structure and leaf density, can provide effective and continuous shade in the outdoor space for most of the year. A shade tree is characterized by a wide or well-branched crown and sufficient leaf surface to filter direct sunlight and thus noticeably lower the (perceived) temperature. Not only the presence of leaves plays a role, but also their density and distribution. Trees that lose their leaves during longer dry periods, and therefore temporarily provide little or no shade, are therefore less suitable as structural shade trees in urban applications. Many palm species for example are not usually considered full-fledged shade trees in this context, because their narrow crown and limited leaf cover provide only fragmented shade.
Before we get into the shade trees themselves, in this article we will first pay attention to the high, and still rising, temperatures on the island. Curaçao has a warm climate with high humidity. The average temperature on Curaçao is currently around 28 °C. However, this is changing!
Temperatures are rising
Curaçao's climate is warming up, and temperatures are expected to continue to rise in the future. The Meteorological Department of Curaçao has developed scenarios for the consequences of climate change for Curaçao. Around 2050, the average temperature on the island could be about 1 °C higher than it is now. By the end of the century, this could rise to 3°C or more, especially if global greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
The hot season is getting longer
Currently, the average number of hot days per year is 17. A hot day is defined as a day with an average temperature above 29.2 °C. As temperatures rise, the hot season will last longer. The year 2024 in which Curaçao was ravaged by a prolonged heat wave was just a foretaste. Around 2050, the average number of hot days will be between 92 and 156 instead of 17, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions. By the end of the century, the average number of hot days will be between 99 and 298 days, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions. In the worst-case scenario of 298 hot days, we will therefore have an average of 10 hot months per year.
Night temperatures will also rise
Not only will daytime temperatures rise, but nighttime temperatures will also rise. It is normally cooler at night than during the day, but due to climate change, temperatures are expected to rise at night as well. This makes it more difficult for people and buildings to cool down. Warmer nights can increase heat stress, especially in vulnerable groups, because the body receives less relief from the heat.
In conclusion, Curaçao's future climate is expected to be warmer, with a longer hot season and warmer nights. This has consequences for the health of people on the island. Below we discuss the health risks, and which population groups are most vulnerable.
Higher temperatures and health
Rising temperatures make people more likely to overheat, tire more quickly and put them at greater risk of dehydration or heat exhaustion. The high humidity on Curaçao exacerbates this problem. When it's hot, you cool yourself by sweating. The sweat on the skin evaporates and takes heat with it. In areas with low humidity, this moisture can evaporate quickly, sometimes even without any obvious drops of sweat forming. This allows the body to cool down better. However, in such a climate it is important to drink a lot, because you lose a lot of fluid unnoticed. High humidity, on the other hand, makes it more difficult for the body to get rid of heat. And Curaçao has high humidity. In humid air, sweat evaporates less well, because the air is already largely saturated with water vapor. So, less extra moisture can get in. This causes the body to cool down less efficiently. This also makes the air often feel much warmer than the temperature indicated by the thermometer.
Warmer nights also increase the problem. At night, the body needs to recover from the day's exertion. If the temperature remains high, the body has little chance to recover during the night. A poor night's sleep can amplify the effects of heat during the day. Prolonged heat can also exacerbate existing health problems, such as cardiovascular disease.
In general, we have little insight into the consequences of heat for the health of the population, because relevant statistics are often lacking. When someone dies and a doctor must register the cause of death, for example "cardiac arrest" is mentioned. However, it is quite possible that an elderly person with underlying health problems, who is staying in an uncooled room, experiences such heat stress during a hot period that this is the actual cause of the cardiac arrest. Unfortunately, heat is not recorded as a cause of death, nor as a contributing factor. Consequently, we remain unaware of the extent to which heat is affecting the population. It is therefore advisable to develop statistics that allow for better monitoring of the effects of heat on public health.
Which population groups are most susceptible to the adverse effects of rising temperatures? Below, we will discuss the effects of heat on schoolchildren in non-cooled classrooms, the poor parts of the population, and the elderly.
Schoolchildren in non-refrigerated classrooms
Heat has a direct impact on children's ability to learn. At high temperatures, concentration decreases, students tire faster and complaints such as headaches can arise. Not all classrooms have air conditioning. Research shows that learning performance noticeably decreases when it is too hot in and around school buildings. Unfortunately, there is little shade in many schools in Curaçao. Schoolyards are often paved with tiles or concrete and are largely in full sun. During breaks and outdoor sports, children are therefore in the heat for a long time, with an increased risk of overheating and skin burn.
The poor
Not everyone in the population is affected equally. About a third of the population of Curaçao lives below the poverty line. These people often have less access to air conditioning, ventilation or well-insulated homes. Their houses heat up quickly and have difficulty cooling down at night. This puts them at extra risk of health problems due to heat and humidity.
Higher temperatures inside the house during the day
Elderly
Older people are extra vulnerable to heat exposure. Curaçao has an aging population. In the elderly, the body's temperature regulation often works less well, and the feeling of thirst is sometimes reduced. As a result, they drink less, while in reality they need more fluids. This increases the risk of dehydration and overheating. Hot and humid nights make recovery even harder for them. Elderly people in Curaçao who must live on the government retirement pension (AOV) alone sometimes face difficult choices, such as between buying food and paying for the electricity for air conditioning. Due to this greater exposure to heat, this group is at increased risk of (serious) health problems. In addition, many older tourists visit the island. They are not always used to the combination of heat and high humidity, can underestimate the risks and therefore overheat more quickly.
Higher night temperatures
Due to rising temperatures, longer heat periods and warmer nights, it is becoming important to take measures. Drinking enough water, seeking shade, adapting activities to the heat and ensuring cool places in the house is essential. Extra attention to vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, people with a low income and schoolchildren, is needed to protect the health of residents and visitors in a warmer Curaçao. A relatively cheap and simple way of protecting the population against heat is to plant shade trees.
In the next article, we will therefore discuss the importance of shade trees in the urbanized environment. We will see that shade trees prevent the direct radiation of the sun on the skin. We will also discuss the cooling effect of trees. Because the leaves allow water to evaporate, a tree also cools the environment. On a sunny day, the air temperature under a tree can be 1 to 3 °C lower than in full sun. Because direct radiation to the skin is also blocked, the perceived temperature in the shade of trees can be as much as 5 °C or lower than in full sun.